April 2026 Wasde Expectations
Market anticipation for the April WASDE report is low, as it is not expected to significantly impact prices. Current market attention is largely focused elsewhere, particularly on factors such as crude oil. Below are some expected insights for the grain sector.
Corn WASDE Expectations (April 9, 2026)
Modest adjustments are anticipated in the upcoming WASDE report for corn, with no dramatic shifts expected.
Key Issues & Potential Revisions:
Feed/Residual Usage: Currently, the balance sheet shows an increase in feed/residual usage year-over-year, which is inconsistent with flat-to-down animal inventories. However, the USDA is unlikely to correct these figures in this report, and no revision to feed estimates is expected. A future downward revision of these inflated numbers would significantly tighten the corn balance sheet (the biggest unknown).
Ending Stocks: Corn ending stocks are well above both USDA's current estimate and last year's figures. A Stocks-to-Usage ratio of 13.8% would mark a six-year high, indicating a well-supplied market.
Ethanol and Exports: The current ethanol estimate appears somewhat high given recent demand. Conversely, export commitments remain robust, up approximately 29% from last year.
Likely USDA Action (Net Effect):The USDA will likely make a slight downward revision to the ethanol estimate and nudge the export estimate higher. The net effect of these changes will likely be a moderate increase in ending stocks, which is slightly bearish for price.
Soybean WASDE Expectations (April 9, 2026)
The upcoming WASDE report is anticipated to show a strengthening of the domestic soybean market due to robust crushing activity, likely leading to an upward revision of the crush estimate. However, the export outlook remains challenged.
Key Issues & Potential Revisions:
Exports: The current export pace lags behind last year. Record production in Brazil provides international buyers with ample alternatives, and without significant new purchases from China, export figures are expected to fall short of current USDA projections.
China and Political Uncertainty: The market's export potential is heavily reliant on whether China buys additional old crop U.S. soybeans. Given the uncertainty surrounding the May meeting between Trump and Xi—a significant near-term catalyst—the USDA is expected to keep export numbers unchanged, preferring to wait for political clarity.
Likely USDA Action (Net Effect): The USDA will most likely raise the crush estimate and maintain the export forecast.This combination should result in a little tightening of ending stocks, which is considered a slightly bullish factor for the soybean market.
Wheat WASDE Expectations (April 9, 2026)
The forecast is straightforward with strong current exports and a manageable balance sheet.
Key Issues & Potential Revisions:
Old Crop Exports: Significant revisions to old crop export numbers are not expected this month. The USDA will likely await more data, as additional old crop exports are typically near zero during April-May.
Feed/Residual Usage: Minor usage is running below last year's pace but is not substantial enough to force an immediate revision.
Likely USDA Action (Net Effect): A modest tightening of the balance sheet is anticipated, but the overall market is not considered "tight" as the bushel count is still above last year's. The stocks-to-use ratio remains comfortable.The USDA will most likely slightly raise export numbers and lower ending stocks.