Beef Production: Where are we actually?
According to David Anderson’s article from Southern Ag Today there has been some recent chatter about beef supplies that has many folks asking: is production actually picking up? While we're not suddenly flooding the market with more beef than last year, seasonal trends are starting to ease some of the pressure. Beef production typically bottoms out in the spring before climbing through the summer months. This year, year-over-year declines have been noticeable but are softening. January through April saw production running about 6.1% below 2025 levels, with weekly drops varying from 3% to over 11%. By May, that gap had narrowed to an average of just 3.8%.
Anderson states that beef output comes down to two main factors: how many cattle are going to slaughter and their average weights.
Steer slaughter has seen a slight uptick recently, which aligns with the normal spring-to-summer increase.
Heifer slaughter is a bit higher than typical seasonal patterns this year.
Dairy cows are being culled at rates same as last year.
Beef cow culling remains lower than last year, but has jumped up in recent weeks.
Cattle weights are still historically heavy, though dressed weights for steers and heifers have dipped slightly lately.
Retail beef prices often climb through mid-year thanks to those spring supply lows hitting right when grilling season kicks into high gear. As production seasonally ramps up in the second half of the year, it helps moderate those prices. We've got more cattle on feed than a year ago and those heavy weights are working in our favor. While this won't magically return us to more supplies or cheap prices overnight, it could help prevent prices from climbing much higher and potentially bring some relief from recent peaks. The beef herd is still in a tight spot overall, but the worst of the seasonal squeeze may be behind us according to Anderson’s article.
Here is a link to his full article: https://www.oklahomafarmreport.com/2026/06/02/beef-production-increasing/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=beef-production-increasing